Title: WEF Securing Minerals for the Energy Transition 2023

In Collaboration with McKinsey & Company

Report Length: 17 pages

BLUF: The World Economic Forum’s December 2023 white paper, developed with McKinsey & Company, warns that without urgent global coordination and investment, critical mineral shortages could derail the energy transition by 2030, but outlines ten actionable strategies and collaborative themes to secure a sustainable, equitable, and resilient supply chain.

As the world races to decarbonize and meet net-zero commitments, the World Economic Forum (WEF), in collaboration with McKinsey & Company, has released a seminal white paper titled “Securing Minerals for the Energy Transition” (December 2023).

This document presents both a stark warning and a strategic playbook. It signals that if current trajectories hold, the global supply of critical minerals — such as lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements — will fall short of meeting demand by 2030, threatening to stall or even reverse hard-won progress on climate goals.

The paper sets out to accomplish two primary aims: first, to characterize the looming risks associated with the widening gap between mineral supply and demand; and second, to offer a collaborative, actionable framework for managing these risks.

Rooted in extensive stakeholder engagement, including workshops with international organizations, private-sector leaders, and financial institutions, the paper leans on the PESTEL model (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) to assess risk dimensions.

The WEF draws from the International Energy Agency’s Announced Pledges Scenario to quantify the shortfall. Demand for critical minerals is expected to more than double by 2030.

For example, even under conservative scenarios, 2030 supply is projected to undershoot demand by about 6 % for both lithium and nickel (Figure 1 on page 4). The same analysis shows cobalt facing the largest gap at roughly 16 %, and in WEF’s chart positive percentages indicate a shortfall rather than a surplus.

This imbalance could drive mineral prices higher, inject volatility into clean tech markets, and raise costs for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar infrastructure — core pillars of the green economy.

Anticipated supply-demand gap under the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario

Notably, the paper emphasizes that the shortfall is not just a function of geological scarcity but of chronic underinvestment, long permitting timelines, declining ore grades, and fragmented supply chains. Between 2013 and 2023, capital expenditures in mining fell below 10% of revenue — down from 15% in the prior decade — underscoring a systemic reluctance to fund new projects.

The report presents a detailed risk matrix (Figure 2 on page 7) mapping ecosystem threats across two axes: impact and likelihood. Among the most severe risks identified are cascading renewable technology shortages, increased geopolitical tension, rising artisanal and illegal mining, and erosion of ESG standards as investment flows toward jurisdictions with laxer regulations.

Ecosystem risks from the supply demand imbalance of critical materials

These risks are categorized not only by how they affect miners and manufacturers but also by their wider societal repercussions. 

To address these multifaceted challenges, the white paper outlines ten strategic interventions, each tightly linked to supply chain resilience and long-term sustainability:

  1. Reduce Resource Intensity: Embrace urban mining and closed-loop recycling to minimize raw material extraction.
  2. Mobilize Investment: Engage institutional and private capital by embedding ESG principles and creating digital investor platforms.
  3. Leverage Alternative Finance: Deploy green bonds, blended finance, and impact investments to de-risk projects in emerging markets.
  4. Enhance Data Transparency: Standardize and share global mineral data to better predict supply-demand trends.
  5. Address Price Uncertainty: Encourage long-term contracts and spot pricing transparency to stabilize markets.
  6. Increase Local Value-Add: Prioritize job creation and equitable development in mining communities to ensure socio-economic sustainability.
  7. Foster Policy Dialogue: Align regulations globally and regionally to reduce approval delays and facilitate responsible investment.
  8. Accelerate Innovation: Scale substitute technologies and boost R&D.
  9. Unify ESG Standards: Harmonize reporting and compliance frameworks to ease investor and operator burden.
  10. Streamline Permitting: Introduce single-window clearances and digital governance to compress project timelines.

Each strategy is designed not in isolation, but to form a mutually reinforcing system of incentives, governance, and innovation.

Perhaps the paper’s most urgent call is for intensified international cooperation. Analysis of more than 15 global initiatives revealed substantial gaps — especially in linking environmental and social equity goals to mineral supply security.

Without coordination, the paper warns, there is a risk of duplicative efforts, misallocated capital, and worsening geopolitical divides.

The WEF advocates for five collaborative themes: facilitating policy dialogue, mobilizing investment, accelerating innovation, aligning ESG standards, and developing workforce skills.

It highlights ongoing efforts such as the European Raw Materials Alliance (ERMA), the International Renewable Energy Agency’s Collaborative Framework, and the Mining Indaba in Africa as blueprints for regional and sectoral engagement.

These models offer platforms not just for discussion, but for operationalizing shared goals.

For investors, this report signals an inflection point: mineral scarcity is no longer a speculative risk — it is imminent and systemic.

The strategic outlook it offers is strategically favorable for those willing to navigate complexity with foresight, and particularly for players able to align innovation with ESG and geopolitical fluency.

For policymakers, the WEF provides a roadmap for how regulation, diplomacy, and investment can work in concert rather than in conflict. The emphasis on “signposts” for policy direction adds a layer of pragmatic realism to what is otherwise a sweeping call to action.

And for the public, the takeaway is clear: the energy transition is as much a materials challenge as it is a technological one. Responsible mining, done right, is not a compromise — it is a cornerstone of climate action.